Ether may face challenges delivering significant price increases in 2025 according to 10X Research predictions.

Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, has expressed concerns about Ethereum’s (ETH) potential performance in a 2025 bull run. According to Thielen, Ether might not be the wisest investment choice for investors looking to capitalize on a bull market next year.

Underwhelming Returns: A Possible Scenario

While Thielen acknowledges that the possibility of new catalysts cannot be ruled out, he cautions that Ethereum may struggle to deliver meaningful rallies in 2025. In his December 30th market report, Thielen stated:

"While we appreciate Ethereum’s volatility, we believe it remains a poor medium-term investment and expect ETH to underperform BTC once again in 2025… As a result, our stance on Ethereum remains clear: ‘avoid’."

Concerns about Active Validators

Thielen highlights the trend of active validators as one of the most important metrics to watch in 2025. He notes that the growth rate of validators has turned negative, with a decline of approximately 1% over the past 30 days. This development raises concerns about the increasing risk of more validators exiting the network.

Unstaking and Lack of Real Demand

Thielen argues that a rise in unstaking seems logical, given Ethereum’s lack of real demand outside of staking. He believes that the platform lacks a unified value proposition, which would naturally lead to increased investor interest over time.

Attestant’s Counterargument

However, Tim Lowe, chief business officer at Attestant, disagrees with Thielen’s statement. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Lowe suggests that refined marketing and a clear value proposition could easily increase demand for Ether, leading to more investors participating in the market.

Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Past Performance

Looking at historical data, Bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed ETH significantly since January 1st, 2024. While BTC is up 121.4% over this period, Ether’s return stands at 46.3%, according to CoinMarketCap data.

ETF Launch and Market Shifts

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States on January 11th, 2024, was met with strong demand, pushing BTC prices to new highs within two months. In contrast, US Ether ETFs launched in July but saw significantly less demand, leading to a more bearish outlook for the asset.

Ethereum’s Catalysts Fall Short

Thielen expresses skepticism about Ethereum’s catalysts, including the Duncan upgrade in March and the upcoming Pectra upgrade in early 2025. He notes that only two out of 19 upgrades have had a notable positive impact on price, both occurring during Bitcoin bull markets.

Price Uncertainty: Analysts’ Diverging Views

While Thielen’s analysis suggests that Ether may continue to underperform against Bitcoin in 2025, other crypto analysts offer differing views. Cold Blooded Schiller, a pseudonymous trader, believes that Ether is range-bound and could either stage a "sweep and run" to the upside or break down to the Dec. 20 range low.

Dal’s Analysis: Two Possible Scenarios

Echoing similar sentiments, Dal suggests that Ether could go in one of two directions:

"If we flip 3,554 and we go back to 4k if we can’t flip, I think we can sweep 3,102."

Michael van de Poppe’s Bullish Outlook

In contrast, MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe is more bullish on Ether. He believes that the asset is showing signs of breaking out relative to Bitcoin in January 2025 and suggests that the ETH/BTC ratio could break through 0.04.

Conclusion

As the crypto market enters a new year, Ethereum’s uncertain future raises questions about its potential performance in a bull run. Analysts offer differing views on Ether’s prospects, from Thielen’s cautionary stance to van de Poppe’s bullish outlook. As investors navigate this uncertainty, it is essential to consider multiple perspectives and evaluate the risks and opportunities presented by the market.

Disclaimer

This article is for general information purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. The views expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views of Cointelegraph.